Monday, May 01, 2006

Wonk of the day: "fishonhook668"

Thanks to fishonhook668 (and his presumed alte rego "fiend") for his reply on the payroll numbers. He questioned my 4.8% pay growth numbers and pointed out that the BLS March preliminary numbers were 0.2%/month, approximately half the revised February number of 0.4%/month on which I had done my analysis. (Also I note that the 0.4% revised number does not seem to be on the BLS website yet although it was reported here in the Wall Street Journal).

Looking at the new BLS data I still think pay increases can make up for the loss of a calculated 1.8% of consumer spending if cash out refinancings drop by 50%.

Not a picture of runaway inflation, not a picture of a collapse. I still think that the change in market forces is good enough reason to hold inverse bond funds.

Good data and a good catch by fishonhook668, our Wonk of the Day!

Keep poking holes folks, I have no agenda or ego to bruise, I just want to find the best possible information.
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