Economic Sector Overviews

This is a place to gather articles that currently apply to the economy and the market.

Trends in sectors and considerations of corporate behavior will be gathered here and I'm going to link it from the top category menus. This will help me to see areas that need attention and new analysis and provide a single place for economic sector overviews.

Oil prices

• Conclusion: oil shock is likely to fizzle, although it may take until 2009-2010 to do it.
• More: Is oil the new internet bubble --> article
• More: Peak oil is not real --> article

The housing market

• Conclusion: A bear market in the next couple years is a reasonable probability as the movement of money from consumerism to mortgage payments will suck out much of the increase in salaries. The trend will also lower consumer confidence, leading to a more jittery market.

Inflation

• Conclusion: Inflation forces remain strong as of June 2006.
• More: months later the Wall Street Journal survey of economists finally finds that inflation is expected to be higher than GDP. -- > article, see second item
• Inflation dissected by sector and discussion of investing impact --> article

The bond market

• Conclusion: Bond markets will remain inverted and then flatter than otherwise expected. The contents of this article were reported as news about a month later in the Wall Street Journal. The WSJ article reads as if they copied it off our pages!

The effect of debt and generational shifts on consumer spending.

• Conclusion: certain stock categories to benefit over others.

The new corporate debt shell game.

• Conclusion: Be familiar with this trick and watch out for those activist hedge funds. You can try to surf the wave if you want, but make sure to get out.