Week in Preview

This week will be VERY heavy with market information. We have the combination of an ongoing war in the Middle East that’s less than a week old, inflation numbers reporting during a time when people are concerned about the moves of the Federal Reserve, and the core of earnings reports season. There will be numerous events Tuesday and Wednesday to justify whatever happens in the market. I am going to sit on my positions but re-evaluate them as earnings come out. I will also post some analysis on the inflation reports.

Monday, July 17th

• Capacity Utilization for June reports at 915 EST. Previous numbers were a tad under 82%. Any big jump will be seen as inflationary, although I don’t expect that to happen.
  
• Industrial Production for June reports at 915 EST. This number dropped last month, look for a positive number this month.
  
• Earnings reports: CBH, HDI, C, ETN, GWW, MI, PVTB, MAT, NVS, HTLD, CCK, DGII, INVX, PPDI, NBIX, ACTS
  

Tuesday, July 18th

• PPI and CORE PPI come out at 8:30am EST for June. These inflation indexes will be closely watched by the market. Recent statements at the Federal Reserve indicate they will be looking closely at ongoing data to determine the future of interest rate increases. These reports will be scrutinized by traders. If they see data that could force the Fed to increase rates again soon, expect a stock market swoon. Previous numbers were 0.2% and 0.3% for Core and PPI respectively, but the individual components will be very important, so a trip to bls.gov to look at the press release will be in order. I will put up some comments once the reports are out.
  
• Earnings reports: MTG, NYT, CORS, SCHW, ADTN, ASO, ELS, FCX, JEF, JNJ, KEY, MEL, MER,, NCC, RBNC, STT, USB, WFC, BLK, KO, UTX, SIFY, AMTD, FRX, PNFP, MNRO, IBM, ILMN, PLXT, RLRN, SOV, TRMK, TSS, USNA, YHOO, CSX, HBHC, CGNX, CHKP, DTAS, PHHM
  

Wednesday, July 19th

• Weekly Crude inventories reports at 10:30am EST.
  
• Building Permits and Housing Starts for June report at 830 EST. The market is expecting stable numbers for housing. I give at least a 50% chance of a decline, although during the summer the building permit numbers can be heavily influenced by regional weather, so it is hard to predict.
  
• CPI and CORE CPI report at 0830 EST. Like the PPI and Core PPI above, these numbers will heavily influence the market.
  
• Earnings reports: No less than 110 companies report earnings today, including AAPL – one of our portfolio stocks. For AAPL I am predicting increased computer system sales. I have no special insight on iPod sales.
  

Thursday, July 20th

• Initial jobless claimsweekly report comes out at 0830 EST. Forecast is for approximately 320,000 – slightly less than last week. Forecasters have been getting this number wrong fairly often though. This is a secondary report but will be watched by the market as a potential inflation indicator.
  
• Leading Indicators report for June at 10:00 EST. This number dropped 0.6% last month, indicating economic pessimism. The forecast is for a small increase this time, which should be a good thing for the markets since you wouldn’t want the economy weakening as we head into inflation, but the market may also see strength as a sign that the fed will feel more free to raise rates.
  
• Earnings reports: another 56 companies report today
  

Friday, July 21st

• A remarkably quiet Friday, considering how intense the rest of the week will be.
  
• Earnings reports: ERICY, IUSA