Thursday, July 06, 2006

Apple sales growing

In the Apple BUY ranking we analyzed the market segments and came to the conclusion that just a few points of market share gain for their computers should make a substantial improvement in the bottom line.

A new survey by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence shows a jump in buyer interest for Macintosh computers. Among those saying it's likely they'll buy a new desktop PC in the next six months, Apple was the No. 2 preferred brand, with 16%. That's the highest number for Apple since TechnoMetrica began collecting purchase-intent data more than two years ago. In May, 6% of likely desktop PC buyers said they would choose Apple. Last November the number was 7.5%.

Clearly the new wave of advertising and the glow from the success of the iPod are having an effect. From previous analysis we know that just a percent or two of the PC market are enough to drive target growth at Apple. This growth should come even though the same survey showed only 19% of those interviewed were going to buy a PC in the next 6 months (down 29% from a year ago). If consumers only buy 70% as many computers as last year but Apple gets 16% instead of 7% that’s still a 60% boost to Mac sales.

The market seems not to have caught up with this yet, so I intend to increase my present position in AAPL to ride the news. Perhaps the market is still focused on the backdated stock options – but those were years ago and the bad news is out already.

Also of interest is this analysis of the current Apple rumors. Probably true: new Mac Pro coming out, new OS, full length movies coming to iTunes, and the iPhone within 12 months. Probably untrue: touchscreen iPod, in flight iTunes, or iTunes advertising.

From the survey release:

Survey respondents say positive word of mouth has helped sell Apple's Macs
as well.

Margaret Chisholm of Lexington, Mass., says her 26-year-old daughter
plans to buy a Macintosh on the recommendation of an older sister.

"Her sister said, 'Get one of these computers. They're great,'"
Chisholm said. Her daughter already uses an iPod.

Wilson Meador of Dallas says his daughter recently got a MacBook for
college this fall. His wife, an artist, uses a Macintosh at work and his
daughter had a chance to try it out.

"My daughter had used my wife's Mac at her studio and it was just her
preference," Meador said. His daughter also owns an iPod.
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