Sunday, November 12, 2006

Weekly look ahead

The election is over and Rumsfeld is out, the political commercials should die down for a while so the market can focus, once again, on corporate profits!

Investors have been remarkably sanguine about the state of the economy. Construction spending and the auto industry are down, initial retail reports as the holiday season approaches are mixed, and companies are coming up against difficult year-over-year comparisons. Durable goods orders are only holding due to defense orders, which will have to taper off as Iraq eventually settles down and the budget gets written with Democrats in both the House and Senate.

All together this is starting to look like a cycle top. I've already sold calls on my index ETFs (meaning that I will miss out if the market rockets, but stand to gain a little if the market meanders) and I would encourage readers to begin to think a bit more defensively. I still am issuing buys such as last week's one on recession-resistant Asta Funding.

This week we get plenty of financial news. It will be interesting to see how the economic picture continues to unfold.


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