Sunday, November 05, 2006

Weekly look ahead

Election week!

Time for us American's to go out and vote. By coincidence this week is pretty light on economic news and the state of the economy is open to lots of interpretation. If you read my analysis on construction spending and the auto industry or were looking at the new jobs creation report last week you might be pretty cautious. Meanwhile many people are debating the job numbers vigorously due to divergent data in different types of surveys (sign in possibly required on that link).

The argument over last weeks job reports is so loud that Madeline Schnapp at TrimTabs Investment Research (an outfit I think highly of) said:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' estimates for October WRONG, WRONG, WRONG!!!!! … The BLS estimate for job growth in the U.S. went from unbelievable in September to downright ridiculous this past month when they reported an anemic 92,000 new jobs created during the month of October. TrimTabs real-time and near real-time indicators suggest that job growth was closer to 200,000 new jobs. … If there was any doubt about the believability of the current October BLS employment numbers, a quick look at the gigantic revisions to the September data should put that question quickly to rest.
That's a very agressive statement for an economist!

This upcoming week will probably be all about the elections. Most investors expect the Republicans to lose Congress. If they are surprised and the Republicans win we may see significant repositioning in the market.

Some of the areas expected to be changed if/when the democrats win include: Oil & Gas, Pharma, Defense, Government Sponsored Enterprises, Metals, and Alternative energy. For a bit of a by-sector writeup, look here.

Meanwhile we should keep our eyes on this weeks earnings, we are still in the season when lots of significant reports are coming out.

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