Sunday, July 23, 2006

Weekly look ahead

The big market mover this week will probably be the hundreds of earnings reports. I’m not going to list each company by ticker in the daily summaries, because there are hundreds of them this week :)

If things clear up in the Middle-East, that would also have an impact.

Monday, July 24th

  • Earnings reports: About 80 companies including Merck (MRK), BellSouth (BLS), Knoll (KNL), Kraft Foods (KFT), and many more
Tuesday, July 25th

  • Consumer Confidence for July reports at 10am EST. This survey index was at 105.7 last month and current projections range from 104.8 to 106.5. Those are all close enough to in-line that as long as the real number is anywhere with that broad estimate range I predict the market impact will be small relative to the impact of all the earnings reports today.
  • Existing Home Sales for June report at 10am EST. Prior number was 6.67M, estimates range from 6.6-6.7M. If this number tanks during the normally strong summer season it would be a strong negative indicator.
  • Earnings reports: Over 200 earnings reports today
Wednesday, July 26th

  • Weekly Crude inventories reports at 10:30am EST.
  • Fed Beige Book reports at 2pm EST. This report collects anecdotal reports from each of the Federal Banking territories to help the Fed understand where the economy is going. Published 8 times a year, you can get released reports here.
  • Earnings reports: Around 100 companies report today.
Thursday, July 27th

  • Initial jobless claims for the week report at 0830 EST. These numbers have been stable in the 300,000 – 320,000 range for a while. The expectation is that this will continue. If the claims number drops a lot the market will too as traders will see a sign of inflation.
  • Help-Wanted Index for June reports at 10am EST. This number has been around 33-34 for a while, same is expected to continue. This is another indicator where good news is bad news; strong employment opportunities often translate into incipient inflation.
  • Durable Orders for June report at 8:30am EST. Last month this report surprised with a -0.2% although there has also been a trend toward revising these numbers upward a month later and industrial purchasing has actually been strong (that link is worth reading). Expected value for this report is a strong 1.7-5.5%.
  • New Home Sales for June report at 10am EST. This one may be out of whack due to the unusual weather.
  • Earnings reports: About 100 companies report today.
Friday, July 28th

  • Employment Cost Index for Q2 reports at 8:30am EST. Last quarter this number was 0.6%, this quarter should be the same or a little higher. We’re looking at a 3% or so number for the year, which isn’t so bad when compared with average CPI numbers. Unfortunately the cost of employment hits different sectors pretty evenly while price increases have been favoring certain sectors. Sectors that aren’t seeing price power, like food and clothing, are going to suffer as employment costs rise. Sectors that are seeing price increases like energy and healthcare should maintain their profitability. This is a good example of why the economic cycle favors varied sectors at different times.
  • Advance GDP numbers for Q2 report at 8:30am EST. Last quarter saw a hearty 5.6% increase. The current projections is for about a 3% increase in Q2, maybe a tad bit higher.
  • Michigan Sentiment - revised for July reports at 9:50am EST. Expectation is for this number to hold steady at 83.

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