Sunday, June 04, 2006

Market moving items out this week

Overall this looks to be a choppy to negative week, guard yourself appropriately. I am moving some assets to cash.

Monday, June 5th

  • ISM Services Index for may releases at 10am EST. Anything above 50 indicates growth. This number surprised at its last report with a very strong 63. Current expectations are for 60 but even a reading this high may disappoint some people who might be looking for another surprise.
  • Earnings report: BOBE

Tuesday, June 6th

  • Earnings: NOOF, SCHS, KFY, NT, CHKE, LZB, COO, MATK, VTS, ASHW, DSW – many people will be watching Nortel [NT] for indications on the communications market (and it will probably affect Agilent and Lucent stock), but I will also be watching La-Z-Boy [LZB], which reports after market close, to see if their sales are strong and help verify my theory of boomernomics.

Wednesday, June 7th

  • Crude Oil inventories report at 10:30am. There may be market action, but I don’t expect any substantive changes, read here for why.
  • Consumer Credit report for April comes out at 3:00pm EST. The prior report was $2.5B but a little math suggests this one will be close to $4B, an increase that is sure to make the news. I calculate that this rate of increase can still be covered if the current rate of wage increases hold up, although the current debt will cut into consumer spending growth.
  • Earnings: ALOG, CMTL, FNSR, BMC

Thursday, June 8th

  • Initial jobless claims report at 830am EST. This report will probably be big market news. The prior report came in at 336,000 jobless claims, and this one is expected to be around 325,000. Too many jobless claims will be seen as a sign of economic weakness, too few will be seen an harbinger of inflation. The only way for this report not to do rude things to the market will be to come in on target.
  • Wholesale Inventories report for April will be out at 10:30am EST. The market expects 0.5%, versus a prior value of 0.2%. There are sure to be comments about increasing inventories indicating consumer spending is slowing down if this number is 0.4% or more, so this probably won’t be a positive report.
  • Earnings: FCEL, NSM, TTWO, IDWK

Friday, June 9th

  • Import price and Export price aggregates report at 830am EST. Most people don’t watch this indicator but I actually think it’s important because so much of the lower-level consumer discretionary spending is focused on imported manufactured goods. Anything over 0.3% would be worrying to me as a sign of inflation.
  • Balance of Trade is reported at 830am EST. This number was -$62B previously and should be around -$65B but I’m not worried about a variation of $3B here. I actually think it’s a good thing that the emerging economies are building up a reserve of US dollars, although a full explanation will have to wait until I write my article about the current dangers of foreign markets.
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