Monday, May 29, 2006

Reports out this coming week

Tuesday, May 30th:

  • Consumer Confidence: 10am EST report. This number was at 109.2 previously but the briefing forecast is 104, a decline that will surely be noted negatively in the financial press. The whisper number around the street is even lower at 100 so expectations are low already.
  • Earnings reports: ABS, CA, SMTC, MCDTA

Wednesday, May 31st:

  • Chicago PMI (Manufacturing index): Big one of the day, 10am EST. Was 57.2 before and little change is expected with forecast of 57.0 and market numbers around 56.2. Anything above 50 indicates growth and it's been wandering in a 6 point range so unless this is way off the forecast I don't expect much action due to this.
  • Crude Inventories: 10am EST. I imagine that this will be mentioned in all the reports on the daily market action but really it can excuse almost any behavior. I don't expect much actual economic impact from oil moving forward. Lately this number has been negative (indicating shrinking inventories).
  • Federal Open Market Committee minutes: 2pm EST the May 10 FOMC minutes will be released. It may cause a reaction in the market if the discussion doesn't agree with public statements Bernanke has been making.
  • Earnings: PORK, COST, GMTN, TIF, NDN, NAVR, ADCT, HOV, GEF, NOVL, VTS, SIGM, DBRN

Thursday, June 1st:

  • Initial Jobless claims: 8:30am. I expect this to be the market mover of the week. Previous numbers were at 329K and the market is expecting an decline. Too much decline will be seen as inflationary, too little decline will be seen as economic weakness.
  • Q1 Productivity numbers revision: 8:30am EST. Most people ignore these revisions unless its shockingly divergent from previous reported numbers.
  • Construction spending for April: 10am EST. The market is expecting a large drop in this number, from 0.9% growth previously to basically zero. Consensus is 0.6% though, so the market may be surprised if the analysts are right.
  • ISM Index for May: 10am EST. Prior number was 57.3, look for a decrease to 55-57. Outside that range expect the market to react.
  • May Auto Sales Numbers: Noon EST. Prior sales were 5.6M, consensus is for a decrease to 5.3M, although many people are expecting it to hold at last months numbers so a 5.3M number may cause weakness - especially at GM and Ford.
  • May Truck Sales Numbers: Noon EST
  • Earnings: CIEN, SEAC, WIND TTWO, PLL, ESL, UTSI, BBOX

Friday, June 2nd:

  • No reports of note scheduled.
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